Aleksandar Vukic vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Montreal Qualifying Final
AUS12
CHI25
Vukic A.
Aleksandar Vukic faces Tomas Barrios Vera in the Montreal qualifying final on hard. Aleksandar Vukic is the paper favourite — ranked #105, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage — but Tomas Barrios Vera has won their only previous meeting.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Vukic A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Aleksandar Vukic 129 games in 14 days, Tomas Barrios Vera 27.
- Head-to-head: Tomas Barrios Vera leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Miami Masters 2026.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadVukic A.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 77 games (7d) · Barrios Vera T.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Q2 | hard | Tomas Barrios Vera | 6-3 7-6 |