Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Keegan RiceMontreal Q32

Montreal · ATP · Q32
#49ATP
1833ELO
1803Hard ELO
$1000kYTD
$38MCAREER
28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#591ATP
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW
Tsitsipas S.
6-3 6-4
Rice K.
Tsitsipas S.
662
Rice K.
340

Stefanos Tsitsipas won the Montreal final, defeating Keegan Rice 6-3, 6-4. Tsitsipas and Rice served four aces each, but Tsitsipas converted two of six break points and won 93 percent of his first-serve points to secure the victory. Tsitsipas also had four double faults to Rice's one and took two service breaks to Rice's zero.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
68%
44%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Tsitsipas S.84%
Rice K.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tsitsipas S. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
100

Tsitsipas S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Rice K.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw