Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas MejiaMontreal Qualifying Final

Montreal · ATP · Qualifying Final
#91ATP
1627ELO
1496Hard ELO
$400kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLLWLW
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
#131ATP
1477ELO
1424Hard ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWLWWW
Trungelliti M.
vs
Mejia N.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Trungelliti M.45%
Mejia N.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Trungelliti M. 3–1 · Mejia N. 1–1 · small sample
Both won · different surfaces (Clay × Grass)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+73 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1424
6.9Overall Elo 1627
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1477
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.52 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
56%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
65%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
5.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Trungelliti M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mejia N.

Mejia N.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Trungelliti M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
19
26
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
74
Break points won·Clear edge
27
6
Deciding sets·Slight edge
35
40
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
94

Trungelliti M.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Mejia N.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw