Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones

Toronto · WTA · Qualifying Final

USAALT

Varvara Lepchenko

#175WTA

1578ELO

1559Hard ELO

40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LWLWLLWLLW

—

Sets

Saturday, 1 August 2026 · 17:30

hard

AUS

Emerson Jones

#139WTA

1671ELO

1664Hard ELO

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWLLWLLLL

Lepchenko V.

Jones E.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC

Lepchenko V.24%

Jones E.76%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jones E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

5 common opponents · Lepchenko V. 3–3 · Jones E. 4–2

Lepchenko V. better · same surface, 38 days apart · ⚠ lower-tier event▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Lepchenko V.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Jones E.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.7Hard Elo 1559

Surface ELO

6.3+105 Hard Elo edge

3.8Overall Elo 1578

ELO gap

6.2Overall Elo 1671

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.65 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

6.77 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season

Lepchenko V.Jones E.

1st serve in·Slight edge

67%

62%

1st serve points won·Even

61%

62%

2nd serve points won·Even

45%

46%

Service points won·Even

56%

Return points won·Even

44%

Break points saved·Even

55%

57%

Aces / match·Slight edge

3.0

1.9

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.6

4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Lepchenko V.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Jones E.

Jones E.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Lepchenko V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Lepchenko V.Jones E.

Freshness·Clear edge

Lepchenko V.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Jones E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

27°CPartly cloudy

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Varvara Lepchenko vs Emerson Jones — Toronto Qualifying Final