Marcos Giron vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Montreal Qualifying Final
USA3
ESP23
Giron M.
Marcos Giron faces Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the Montreal qualifying final on hard. Marcos Giron holds the paper edge — ranked #85, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Marcos Giron's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Pablo Llamas Ruiz's has cooled.
- Under pressure: Pablo Llamas Ruiz has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 63 vs Marcos Giron's 38).
- Fatigue load: Pablo Llamas Ruiz carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGiron M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d) · Llamas Ruiz P.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.