Jaime Faria vs C. O'Connell — Montreal Qualifying Final

Montreal · ATP · Qualifying Final
POR2
Jaime Faria
#79ATP
1735ELO
1615Hard ELO
$531kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLWWWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
C. O'Connell
AUS22
C. O'Connell
#126ATP
32 yrs
Last 10
LLWWWWWWWL
Faria J.
vs
O'Connell C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Faria J.70%
O'Connell C.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Faria J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Faria J. 1–0 · O'Connell C. 0–1 · small sample
Faria J. better · different surfaces (Clay × Hard) · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Faria J.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
O'Connell C.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

47 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
Faria J.O'Connell C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
33%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
72%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.2
6.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (47 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Faria J.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs O'Connell C.

O'Connell C.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Faria J.

Serve advantage — Faria J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Faria J.O'Connell C.
Freshness·Even
88
92

Faria J.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · O'Connell C.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 60%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw