Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha — Montreal Qualifying Final

Montreal · ATP · Qualifying Final
Martin Damm
USA11
Martin Damm
#104ATP
1706ELO
1657Hard ELO
$338kYTD
$910kCAREER
22 yrs · 203 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWWL
—
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
POR20
Henrique Rocha
#123ATP
1676ELO
1574Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$883kCAREER
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLWWWW
Damm M.
vs
Rocha H.

Martin Damm faces Henrique Rocha in the Montreal qualifying final on hard. Martin Damm holds the paper edge — ranked #104, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Damm M.71%
Rocha H.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Damm M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Martin Damm comes in with 4 days of rest and 79 games in 14d, vs Henrique Rocha's 12 and 48.
  • Head-to-head: Martin Damm leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Faro 1 2023.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Damm M. 1–0 · Rocha H. 0–3 · small sample
Damm M. better · different surfaces (Grass × Clay)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Damm M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rocha H.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+82 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1574
5.4Overall Elo 1706
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1676
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
Damm M.Rocha H.
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
31%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
12.4
2.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Damm M.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rocha H.

Rocha H.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Damm M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Damm M.Rocha H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
26
45
Break points saved·Dominant
93
67
Break points won·Clear edge
1
25
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
57
Tiebreaks·Even
84
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Damm M.Rocha H.
Freshness·Clear edge
73
95

Damm M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Rocha H.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-02-24M25 Faro 1QFhardMartin Damm2-6 6-1 6-4

Draw