Sarah Mildren vs Mutsumi Uemura

W15 Brisbane 3 · ITF · Quarter-final

AUS

Sarah Mildren

#1352WTA

18 yrs

Last 10

WWLWWLLLLW

—

Sets

Friday, 31 July 2026 · 10:00

hard

JPN

Mutsumi Uemura

#1020WTA

56 yrs

Last 10

WWLWLWLLWL

Mildren S.

Uemura M.

Sarah Mildren faces Mutsumi Uemura in the W15 Brisbane 3 quarter-final on hard. Mutsumi Uemura holds the paper edge — ranked #1020. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC

Mildren S.61%

Uemura M.39%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mildren S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Mutsumi Uemura handed Gabriella Taylor a third-set bagel in a 6–4 5–7 6–0 win.
Last match: Sarah Mildren edged Jizelle Sibai in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Fatigue load: Mutsumi Uemura carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mildren S.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Uemura M.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.82 of last 5 on hard

Surface form

3.84 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

2 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season

Mildren S.Uemura M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

59%

70%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

55%

49%

2nd serve points won·Clear edge

36%

49%

Service points won·Even

47%

49%

Return points won·Slight edge

38%

46%

Break points saved·Slight edge

33%

44%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.5

0.3

Double faults / match·Even

3.0

3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (2 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Mildren S.serving51% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Uemura M.

Uemura M.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Mildren S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

17°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Sarah Mildren vs Mutsumi Uemura — W15 Brisbane 3 Quarter-final