Denis Yevseyev vs Vadym UrsuSamsun Round of 16

Samsun · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#441ATP
1375ELO
1373Hard ELO
33 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWLWLLW
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#416ATP
1223ELO
1196Hard ELO
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLLLWW
Yevseyev D.
vs
Ursu V.

Denis Yevseyev faces Vadym Ursu in the Samsun round of 16 on hard. Vadym Ursu holds the paper edge — ranked #416.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Yevseyev D.45%
Ursu V.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+178 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1196
6.9Overall Elo 1375
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1223
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
69%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Even
54%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
5.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Yevseyev D.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Ursu V.

Ursu V.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Yevseyev D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
0
0
Break points saved·Slight edge
15
8
Break points won·Even
21
18
Deciding sets·Clear edge
11
27
Tiebreaks·
27

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
90

Yevseyev D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Ursu V.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CPartly cloudy
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 68%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw