Nastasja Schunk vs Xinxin Yao — W75 Hechingen Round of 16

W75 Hechingen · ITF · Round of 16

GER

Nastasja Schunk

#421WTA

1399ELO

1387Clay ELO

22 yrs · 171 cm

Last 10

WLWWWWWWLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 13:00

clay

CHN

Xinxin Yao

#282WTA

1450ELO

1308Clay ELO

22 yrs · Left-handed

Last 10

WLWWLWWLWW

Schunk N.

Yao X.

Nastasja Schunk faces Xinxin Yao in the W75 Hechingen round of 16 on clay. Xinxin Yao is the paper favourite — ranked #282, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Nastasja Schunk arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on clay to Xinxin Yao's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC

Schunk N.64%

Yao X.36%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Schunk N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Nastasja Schunk dropped just 4 games past Chelsea Fontenel.
Last match: Xinxin Yao dropped just 4 games past Dayeon Back.
Fatigue load: Nastasja Schunk carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Schunk N.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Yao X.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.0+79 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.0Clay Elo 1308

4.4Overall Elo 1399

ELO gap

5.6Overall Elo 1450

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

6.47 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

3.23 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

9.06-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

20 vs 40 matches

Statistics

This season

Schunk N.Yao X.

1st serve in·Even

69%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

60%

59%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

47%

Service points won·Even

57%

55%

Return points won·Even

46%

Break points saved·Even

56%

55%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.4

0.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.6

1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Schunk N.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Yao X.

Yao X.serving41% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Schunk N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Schunk N.Yao X.

Freshness·

—

Schunk N.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

36°CMainly clear

Wind 2 km/hHumidity 19%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-01-07	W75 Nonthaburi 1	R32	hard	Xinxin Yao	3-6 6-4 7-5