S. Saito vs Erika Sema — W75 Lexington Round of 16

W75 Lexington · ITF · Round of 16

JPN

S. Saito

29 yrs

Last 10

WLLWWWWL

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 14:30

hard

JPN

Erika Sema

#517WTA

37 yrs · 163 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWLWWLWL

Saito S.

Sema E.

S. Saito faces Erika Sema in the W75 Lexington round of 16 on hard. Erika Sema holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC

Saito S.30%

Sema E.70%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sema E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Head-to-head: Erika Sema leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W35 Taipei 2 2026.
Fatigue load: Erika Sema carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Both 5 of 8 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Saito S.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Sema E.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

Surface form

5.86 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

0.0

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 matches

Statistics

This season

Saito S.Sema E.

1st serve in·

—

75%

1st serve points won·

—

59%

2nd serve points won·

—

45%

Service points won·

—

56%

Return points won·

—

47%

Break points saved·

—

54%

Aces / match·

—

0.6

Double faults / match·

—

2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Conditions

Weather forecast

28°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 38%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-06-24	W35 Taipei 2	R32	hard	Erika Sema	4-6 5-7