Joshua Peck vs M. Thomson — M15 Huamantla 4 Round of 16

M15 Huamantla 4 · ITF · Round of 16
CAN
Joshua Peck
#1310ATP
27 yrs
Last 10
WLLLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
USA
M. Thomson
#1893ATP
26 yrs
Last 10
WWWWWWLLWL
Peck J.
vs
Thomson M.

Joshua Peck faces M. Thomson in the M15 Huamantla 4 round of 16 on hard. Joshua Peck is the paper favourite — ranked #1310 — but M. Thomson arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 9 on hard to Joshua Peck's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Peck J.40%
Thomson M.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Thomson M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Form trend: M. Thomson's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Joshua Peck's has cooled.
  • Fatigue load: M. Thomson carries the heavier recent load — 5 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Last match: M. Thomson edged L. A. Lage Castelan in three tight sets (6–4 6–7 7–5).

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Peck J.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Thomson M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.82 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

1 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
Peck J.Thomson M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
55%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
38%
39%
Service points won·Slight edge
48%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
31%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Peck J.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Thomson M.

Thomson M.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Peck J.

Serve advantage — Thomson M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
22°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 25%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw