Barbora Palicova vs Federica Urgesi

W75 Hechingen · ITF · Round of 16

CZE

Barbora Palicova

#342WTA

1380ELO

1374Clay ELO

22 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLLLLWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 12:30

clay

ITA8

Federica Urgesi

#276WTA

1546ELO

1532Clay ELO

21 yrs

Last 10

WLWLLWLWLL

Palicova B.

Urgesi F.

Barbora Palicova faces Federica Urgesi in the W75 Hechingen round of 16 on clay. Federica Urgesi holds the paper edge — ranked #276, a roughly 160-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC

Palicova B.38%

Urgesi F.62%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Urgesi F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Federica Urgesi dropped the opening set before beating Diana Martynov 4–6 6–1 6–4.
Last match: Barbora Palicova dropped just 3 games past F. Parcelli.
Fatigue load: Federica Urgesi carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Palicova B.

4.1

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Urgesi F.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.0Clay Elo 1374

Surface ELO

7.0+158 Clay Elo edge

2.9Overall Elo 1380

ELO gap

7.1Overall Elo 1546

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.74 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.97 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season

Palicova B.Urgesi F.

1st serve in·Slight edge

59%

68%

1st serve points won·Even

61%

60%

2nd serve points won·Even

43%

46%

Service points won·Even

54%

56%

Return points won·Slight edge

43%

48%

Break points saved·Even

51%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.3

2.2

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.1

2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Palicova B.serving34% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Urgesi F.

Urgesi F.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Palicova B.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Palicova B.Urgesi F.

Freshness·Even

Palicova B.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Urgesi F.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

35°CClear

Wind 3 km/hHumidity 19%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Barbora Palicova vs Federica Urgesi — W75 Hechingen Round of 16