Daniel Milavsky vs Keegan RiceVancouver Quarter-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#325ATP
1349ELO
1337Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWL
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
#831ATP
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLWWW
Milavsky D.
vs
Rice K.

Daniel Milavsky faces Keegan Rice in the Vancouver quarter-final on hard. Daniel Milavsky holds the paper edge — ranked #325. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Around the match

  • It was a great battle, he is a great player. There were ups and downs throughout the match, but I just stuck with it, stuck with my game, and kept believing in myself the whole way through.

    Rice K.vanopen.com· 2026-07-30
  • It's what I practice every single day. I know that it's going to pay off in the long run, whether it's that game, the set, or the match.

    Rice K.vanopen.com· 2026-07-30

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Milavsky D.69%
Rice K.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Milavsky D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

10 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
45%
Break points saved·Dominant
76%
44%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.3
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Milavsky D.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Rice K.

Rice K.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Milavsky D.

Serve advantage — Rice K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
48
54

Milavsky D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 86 games (7d) · Rice K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw