Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo Varillas — San Marino Round of 16
Maestrelli F.
Francesco Maestrelli faces Juan Pablo Varillas in the San Marino round of 16 on clay. Francesco Maestrelli is the paper favourite — ranked #149, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Pablo Varillas arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on clay to Francesco Maestrelli's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Francesco Maestrelli 16 games in 14 days, Juan Pablo Varillas 123.
- Last match: Juan Pablo Varillas dropped just 4 games past Jacopo Vasami.
- Last match: Francesco Maestrelli handed Lukas Neumayer a second-set bagel in a 6–4 6–0 win.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMaestrelli F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Varillas J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.