Alan Wazny vs Noel Larwig — M25 Koszalin Round of 16

M25 Koszalin · ITF · Round of 16
POL7
Alan Wazny
#865ATP
19 yrs
Last 10
WLLLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
GER
Noel Larwig
#1256ATP
24 yrs
Last 10
WLLLLLLLWL
Wazny A.
vs
Larwig N.

Alan Wazny faces Noel Larwig in the M25 Koszalin round of 16 on clay. Alan Wazny holds the paper edge — ranked #865.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Wazny A.49%
Larwig N.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Last match: Noel Larwig edged B. Kokot in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
  • Surface form: Alan Wazny 4 of 7, Noel Larwig 1 of 7 on clay recently — Alan Wazny the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Alan Wazny carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Wazny A.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Larwig N.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.92 of last 7 on clay
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

4 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
Wazny A.Larwig N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
66%
53%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
53%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
60%
44%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Wazny A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Larwig N.

Larwig N.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Wazny A.

Serve advantage — Wazny A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Wazny A.Larwig N.
Freshness·
96
—

Wazny A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw