Mark Lajal vs Braden Shick — Vancouver Quarter-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

EST8

Mark Lajal

#189ATP

1589ELO

1556Hard ELO

$97kYTD

$654kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWLWWWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 13:00

hard

USA

Braden Shick

#234ATP

1385ELO

1358Hard ELO

22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLLWLWW

Lajal M.

Shick B.

Mark Lajal faces Braden Shick in the Vancouver quarter-final on hard. Mark Lajal is the paper favourite — ranked #189, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage — but Braden Shick rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Lajal M.66%

Shick B.34%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lajal M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Mark Lajal 208 games in 14 days, Braden Shick 110.
Last match: Braden Shick dropped just 5 games past Andres Andrade.
Last match: Mark Lajal edged Clement Chidekh in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Lajal M.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Shick B.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.5+198 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.5Hard Elo 1358

7.5Overall Elo 1588

ELO gap

2.5Overall Elo 1384

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.88 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

8.28 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

18 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season

Lajal M.Shick B.

1st serve in·Slight edge

60%

54%

1st serve points won·Even

74%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

Service points won·Even

64%

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

36%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

70%

60%

Aces / match·Clear edge

6.4

3.8

Double faults / match·Even

3.2

3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Lajal M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Shick B.

Shick B.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Lajal M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Lajal M.Shick B.

Freshness·Even

Lajal M.: played today · 3 matches, 61 games (7d) · Shick B.: played today · 3 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather forecast

22°COvercast

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 46%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.