Obregon vs Khayrutdinova — W35 Florence Round of 16

W35 Florence · ITF · Round of 16

USA

Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon

#807WTA

22 yrs

Last 10

WLLWLWWLWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 08:30

hard

RUS4

Ekaterina Khayrutdinova

#471WTA

22 yrs

Last 10

WLLWLWWLWL

Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon A.

Khayrutdinova E.

Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon faces Ekaterina Khayrutdinova in the W35 Florence round of 16 on hard. Ekaterina Khayrutdinova holds the paper edge — ranked #471. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC

Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon A.23%

Khayrutdinova E.77%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Khayrutdinova E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Fatigue load: Ekaterina Khayrutdinova carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon 6 of 10, Ekaterina Khayrutdinova 5 of 10 on hard recently — Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon A.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Khayrutdinova E.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.68 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.66 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

Country comfort

5.8Won 63% in Usa (27)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 5 matches

Statistics

This season

Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon A.Khayrutdinova E.

1st serve in·Even

65%

63%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

62%

56%

2nd serve points won·Even

43%

45%

Service points won·Even

55%

52%

Return points won·Slight edge

51%

45%

Break points saved·Even

54%

53%

Aces / match·Even

1.6

1.2

Double faults / match·Slight edge

5.6

5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 5). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon A.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Khayrutdinova E.

Khayrutdinova E.serving41% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

22°CClear

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 70%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Anne Christine Lutkemeyer Obregon vs Ekaterina Khayrutdinova — W35 Florence Round of 16