Emerson Jones vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

AUS6

Emerson Jones

#139WTA

1671ELO

1664Hard ELO

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWLLLLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 11:30

hard

COURT 1 · 2nd on

THA2

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

#111WTA

1696ELO

1657Hard ELO

24 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWLWWWL

Jones E.

Sawangkaew M.

Emerson Jones faces Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the Vancouver quarter-final on hard. Mananchaya Sawangkaew holds the paper edge — ranked #111.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC

Jones E.36%

Sawangkaew M.64%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sawangkaew M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Emerson Jones dropped the opening set before beating Madison Brengle 4–6 6–0 6–2.
Fatigue load: Emerson Jones carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Emerson Jones 3 of 5, Mananchaya Sawangkaew 4 of 5 on hard recently — Mananchaya Sawangkaew the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jones E.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Sawangkaew M.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.1+7 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.9Hard Elo 1657

4.7Overall Elo 1671

ELO gap

5.3Overall Elo 1696

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

7.77 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.07 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 48 matches

Statistics

This season

Jones E.Sawangkaew M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

62%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

62%

66%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

44%

Service points won·Even

56%

59%

Return points won·Even

44%

46%

Break points saved·Even

57%

55%

Aces / match·Even

1.9

2.2

Double faults / match·Clear edge

4.6

3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 48). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Jones E.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Sawangkaew M.

Sawangkaew M.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Jones E.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Jones E.Sawangkaew M.

Freshness·Slight edge

Jones E.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Sawangkaew M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

20°COvercast

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Emerson Jones vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew — Vancouver Quarter-final