Carles Hernandez vs M. L. Alvarez SarmientoM15 Xativa Round of 16

M15 Xativa · ITF · Round of 16
#727ATP
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWWWWW
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
ESP
M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento
#1818ATP
21 yrs
Last 10
WWLLWWLWWW
Hernandez C.
vs
Alvarez Sarmiento M.

Carles Hernandez faces M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento in the M15 Xativa round of 16 on clay. Carles Hernandez holds the paper edge — ranked #727. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Hernandez C.64%
Alvarez Sarmiento M.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Hernandez C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Carles Hernandez 8 of 10, M. L. Alvarez Sarmiento 7 of 10 on clay recently — Carles Hernandez the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Alvarez Sarmiento M.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.0
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
Hernandez C.Alvarez Sarmiento M.
1st serve in·Even
66%
69%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
52%
Aces / match·Even
1.3
1.3
Double faults / match·Even
1.6
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Hernandez C.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Alvarez Sarmiento M.

Alvarez Sarmiento M.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Hernandez C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw