M. A. Machado vs Matyas FueleM15 Xativa Round of 16

M15 Xativa · ITF · Round of 16
ESP
M. A. Machado
#1905ATP
20 yrs
Last 10
WWWLWWWWLW
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
#553ATP
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWL
Machado M.
vs
Fuele M.

M. A. Machado faces Matyas Fuele in the M15 Xativa round of 16 on clay. Matyas Fuele is the paper favourite — ranked #553 — but M. A. Machado arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on clay to Matyas Fuele's 6.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Machado M.21%
Fuele M.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fuele M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Last match: M. A. Machado dropped just 4 games past A. Siddiqui.
  • Fatigue load: Matyas Fuele carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: M. A. Machado 7 of 8, Matyas Fuele 6 of 8 on clay recently — M. A. Machado the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Machado M.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
6.05 of last 9 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

1 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
Machado M.Fuele M.
1st serve in·Even
57%
59%
1st serve points won·Dominant
35%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
49%
Service points won·Dominant
38%
64%
Return points won·Even
33%
37%
Break points saved·Dominant
17%
79%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.0
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Machado M.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Fuele M.

Fuele M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Machado M.

Serve advantage — Fuele M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load
Machado M.Fuele M.
Freshness·
93

Fuele M.: 12 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw