Drobysheva vs Luciano — W15 Rogaska Slatina Round of 16

W15 Rogaska Slatina · ITF · Round of 16

UKR

Mariia Drobysheva

#1282WTA

19 yrs

Last 10

WWLWLLLWLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

ITA7

Lavinia Luciano

#956WTA

19 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWLWWLW

Drobysheva M.

Luciano L.

Mariia Drobysheva faces Lavinia Luciano in the W15 Rogaska Slatina round of 16 on clay. Lavinia Luciano holds the paper edge — ranked #956.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Drobysheva M.41%

Luciano L.59%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Luciano L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Lavinia Luciano dropped the opening set before beating K. Najzer 4–6 6–3 6–3.
Last match: Mariia Drobysheva dropped just 5 games past Arabella Koller.
Surface form: Mariia Drobysheva 4 of 8, Lavinia Luciano 5 of 8 on clay recently — Lavinia Luciano the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Drobysheva M.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Luciano L.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.23 of last 7 on clay

Surface form

3.32 of last 6 on clay

Win streak

0.0

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

3 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season

Drobysheva M.Luciano L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

61%

66%

1st serve points won·Even

56%

54%

2nd serve points won·Even

41%

43%

Service points won·Even

50%

Return points won·Even

44%

45%

Break points saved·Slight edge

53%

44%

Aces / match·Even

0.3

0.2

Double faults / match·Even

4.7

4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Drobysheva M.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Luciano L.

Luciano L.serving41% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Drobysheva M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

28°CMainly clear

Wind 3 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Mariia Drobysheva vs Lavinia Luciano — W15 Rogaska Slatina Round of 16