Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele vs Francesca Mattioli — W35 Pergamino Round of 16

W35 Pergamino · ITF · Round of 16
ARG6
Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele
#422WTA
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
ITA
Francesca Mattioli
#882WTA
20 yrs
Last 10
WLWWWLWWLW
Maria Gonzalez Daniele J.
vs
Mattioli F.

Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele faces Francesca Mattioli in the W35 Pergamino round of 16 on clay. Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele is the paper favourite — ranked #422 — but Francesca Mattioli arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Maria Gonzalez Daniele J.69%
Mattioli F.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Maria Gonzalez Daniele J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Maria Gonzalez Daniele J.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mattioli F.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on clay
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season
Maria Gonzalez Daniele J.Mattioli F.
1st serve in·Clear edge
71%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
39%
Service points won·Even
53%
53%
Return points won·Even
49%
49%
Break points saved·Even
52%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.4
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
9.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Maria Gonzalez Daniele J.serving34% hold

wins 43% of points on serve vs Mattioli F.

Mattioli F.serving33% hold

wins 43% of points on serve vs Maria Gonzalez Daniele J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
16°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 78%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw