Antonia Vergara Rivera vs Mayu Crossley

W35 Florence · ITF · Round of 16

CHI1

Antonia Vergara Rivera

#346WTA

1351ELO

1291Hard ELO

19 yrs

Last 10

WLLWWLLWWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 10:00

hard

JPN

Mayu Crossley

#762WTA

20 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWWWWWW

Vergara Rivera A.

Crossley M.

Antonia Vergara Rivera faces Mayu Crossley in the W35 Florence round of 16 on hard. Antonia Vergara Rivera is the paper favourite — ranked #346 — but Mayu Crossley arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on hard to Antonia Vergara Rivera's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC

Vergara Rivera A.40%

Crossley M.60%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Crossley M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Fatigue load: Mayu Crossley carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Mayu Crossley arrives on a 6-match winning run.
Surface form: Antonia Vergara Rivera 3 of 5, Mayu Crossley 4 of 5 on hard recently — Mayu Crossley the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Vergara Rivera A.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Crossley M.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

8.68 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

9.06-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

Country comfort

6.3Won 71% in Usa (83)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season

Vergara Rivera A.Crossley M.

1st serve in·Even

68%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

58%

60%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

42%

49%

Service points won·Even

53%

56%

Return points won·Even

52%

54%

Break points saved·Even

54%

56%

Aces / match·Even

0.9

1.1

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.1

3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Vergara Rivera A.serving31% hold

wins 42% of points on serve vs Crossley M.

Crossley M.serving39% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Vergara Rivera A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

26°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 60%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Antonia Vergara Rivera vs Mayu Crossley — W35 Florence Round of 16