Malaika Rapolu vs Kylie Collins — W75 Lexington Round of 16

W75 Lexington · ITF · Round of 16

USA

Malaika Rapolu

#387WTA

1396ELO

1383Hard ELO

23 yrs

Last 10

WWWWWWWLWW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 13:00

hard

USA

Kylie Collins

#455WTA

23 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWWLLLW

Rapolu M.

Collins K.

Malaika Rapolu faces Kylie Collins in the W75 Lexington round of 16 on hard. They have met once, Kylie Collins leading 1–0. Malaika Rapolu brings the better recent hard form (7 of 7).

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC

Rapolu M.71%

Collins K.29%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rapolu M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Surface form: Malaika Rapolu 7 of 7, Kylie Collins 3 of 7 on hard recently — Malaika Rapolu the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Malaika Rapolu carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Kylie Collins leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W15 Cancun 3 2020.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rapolu M.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Collins K.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0First meeting on hard

H2H

5.0First meeting on hard

6.46 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.44 of last 10 on hard

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

5.6Won 59% in Usa (91)

Country comfort

5.0Won 50% in Usa (103)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season

Rapolu M.Collins K.

1st serve in·Slight edge

60%

55%

1st serve points won·Even

64%

61%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

48%

38%

Service points won·Slight edge

58%

51%

Return points won·Even

50%

52%

Break points saved·Slight edge

57%

47%

Aces / match·Clear edge

2.6

0.9

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.3

12.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Rapolu M.serving41% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Collins K.

Collins K.serving30% hold

wins 42% of points on serve vs Rapolu M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Rapolu M.Collins K.

Freshness·

—

100

Collins K.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

27°CClear

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 41%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2020-01-28	W15 Cancun 3	Q16	hard	Kylie Collins	4-6 6-1 10-3