Mathilde Ngijol Carre vs Ariana Geerlings — W15 Kursumlijska Banja 11 Round of 16
W15 Kursumlijska Banja 11 · ITF · Round of 16
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Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
Ngijol Carre M.vs
Geerlings A.
Mathilde Ngijol Carre faces Ariana Geerlings in the W15 Kursumlijska Banja 11 round of 16 on clay. Ariana Geerlings holds the paper edge — ranked #855.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTCNgijol Carre M.20%
Geerlings A.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Geerlings A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Mathilde Ngijol Carre edged Maria Fernanda Herazo Gonzalez in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
- Fatigue load: Ariana Geerlings carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
1 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·
56%
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1st serve points won·
42%
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2nd serve points won·
50%
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Service points won·
45%
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Return points won·
38%
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Break points saved·
62%
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Aces / match·
0.0
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Double faults / match·
5.0
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Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Conditions
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 46%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.