Giulio Perego vs Tiago Cacao — M25 Aldershot Round of 16

M25 Aldershot · ITF · Round of 16

ITA

Giulio Perego

#895ATP

23 yrs

Last 10

WLWWWLLLLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 30 July 2026 · 10:00

hard

POR7

Tiago Cacao

#693ATP

28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWLWW

Perego G.

Cacao T.

Giulio Perego faces Tiago Cacao in the M25 Aldershot round of 16 on hard. Tiago Cacao holds the paper edge — ranked #693.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC

Perego G.41%

Cacao T.59%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cacao T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Giulio Perego dropped the opening set before beating James Beaven 6–7 6–4 6–2.
Last match: Tiago Cacao dropped the opening set before beating O. Brown 3–6 6–4 6–0.
Fatigue load: Tiago Cacao carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Perego G.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Cacao T.

3.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

2.23 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 6

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season

Perego G.Cacao T.

1st serve in·Slight edge

67%

59%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

62%

68%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

53%

59%

Service points won·Slight edge

59%

64%

Return points won·Even

42%

41%

Break points saved·Even

67%

68%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.4

2.6

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.0

1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Perego G.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Cacao T.

Cacao T.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Perego G.

Serve advantage — Cacao T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°CPartly cloudy

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.