Bryce Nakashima vs Karim BennaniM25 Edwardsville Round of 16

M25 Edwardsville · ITF · Round of 16
#882ATP
22 yrs
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWL
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#458ATP
1327ELO
1349Hard ELO
18 yrs
Last 10
WLWWLWWLWW
Nakashima B.
vs
Bennani K.

Bryce Nakashima faces Karim Bennani in the M25 Edwardsville round of 16 on hard. Karim Bennani holds the paper edge — ranked #458. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Nakashima B.32%
Bennani K.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bennani K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Karim Bennani carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 4 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
7.05 of last 7 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.5Won 59% in Usa (71)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

1 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
54%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
30%
39%
Break points saved·Dominant
0%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.0
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Bennani K.

Bennani K.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve advantage — Bennani K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw