James Story vs Rhys Lawlor — M25 Aldershot Round of 32
M25 Aldershot · ITF · Round of 32
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Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
Story J.vs
Lawlor R.
James Story faces Rhys Lawlor in the M25 Aldershot round of 32 on hard. James Story is the paper favourite — ranked #556 — but Rhys Lawlor arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to James Story's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTCStory J.72%
Lawlor R.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Story J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: James Story 1 of 5, Rhys Lawlor 3 of 5 on hard recently — Rhys Lawlor the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form0.0Lost last 4
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
5 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·
66%
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1st serve points won·
54%
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2nd serve points won·
56%
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Service points won·
55%
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Return points won·
36%
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Break points saved·
54%
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Aces / match·
4.4
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Double faults / match·
1.4
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Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Conditions
Weather forecast
31°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 36%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.