Naoya Honda vs Keaton Hance — M25 Edwardsville
M25 Edwardsville · ITF
—
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
Honda N.vs
Hance K.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTCHonda N.72%
Hance K.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Honda N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
12 vs 1 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
54%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
53%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.2
0.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
6.0
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Honda N.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.