Jan Choinski vs Alex BarrenaBonn Round of 16

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#77ATP
1686ELO
1652Clay ELO
$265kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#259ATP
1375ELO
1347Clay ELO
$100kYTD
$266kCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLLW
Choinski J.
6-3 6-2
Barrena A.
Choinski J.
662
Barrena A.
320

Jan Choinski defeated Alex Barrena 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Bonn tournament on clay. Choinski hit 5 aces and 1 double fault, winning 82% of his first serves and converting 50% of break points. He won 4 service breaks to Barrena's 1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-03-16M25 Anapoima 1R16clayAlex Barrena6-3 2-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
55%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
30
Break points saved·Dominant
90
43
Break points won·Dominant
20
54
Deciding sets·Dominant
87
27
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Choinski J.69%
Barrena A.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Choinski J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.8+306 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.2Clay Elo 1347
8.9Overall Elo 1686
ELO gap
1.1Overall Elo 1375
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.98 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
87
82

Choinski J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 39 games (7d) · Barrena A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 29%

Draw