Mary Stoiana vs Peyton Stearns — Memphis Round of 32

Memphis · WTA · Round of 32
USA
Mary Stoiana
#124WTA
1656ELO
1567Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10
LWWLWWLWLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
Peyton Stearns
USA7
Peyton Stearns
#57WTA
1804ELO
1755Hard ELO
$476kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWWLWLL
Stoiana M.
vs
Stearns P.

Mary Stoiana faces Peyton Stearns in the Memphis round of 32 on hard. Peyton Stearns holds the paper edge — ranked #57, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Stoiana M.40%
Stearns P.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Stearns P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Peyton Stearns leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W25 Fort Worth 2022.
  • Fatigue load: Mary Stoiana carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Stoiana M. 0–1 · Stearns P. 1–0 · small sample
Stearns P. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Stoiana M.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Stearns P.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1567
Surface ELO
7.3+188 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1656
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1804
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.48 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Won 67% in Usa (90)
Country comfort
6.1Won 68% in Usa (116)
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
Stoiana M.Stearns P.
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
46%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
53%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.8
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Stoiana M.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Stearns P.

Stearns P.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Stoiana M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Stoiana M.Stearns P.
Freshness·
100
—

Stoiana M.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
33°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-10-19W25 Fort WorthR32hardPeyton Stearns2-6 6-1 6-4

Draw