Anastasia Potapova vs Venus Williams — Washington Round of 32

Washington · WTA · Round of 32
Anastasia Potapova
RUS
Anastasia Potapova
#28WTA
1904ELO
1804Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$6.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWWWLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
Venus Williams
USAWC
Venus Williams
#469WTA
1654ELO
1617Hard ELO
46 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLL
Potapova A.
vs
Williams V.

Around the match

  • “We had a great time playing at Bad Homburg so we were looking forward to playing again. Didn't work out this time. Would love for there to be future times. We'll see what happens.”

    Williams V.Tennishead ↗

  • Venus returns to singles competition amid an 11-match losing streak, facing a challenging draw against world No. 28 Potapova in her Washington comeback.

    Williams V.Tennishead ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Potapova A.90%
Williams V.10%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Potapova A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Potapova A. 1–1 · Williams V. 0–2 · small sample
Mixed · hard to compare — different surfaces (Clay × Hard) · 8 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Potapova A.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Williams V.
3.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+188 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Hard Elo 1617
8.1Overall Elo 1904
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1654
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.61 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 11
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
Potapova A.Williams V.
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
39%
Service points won·Even
57%
53%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
53%
Aces / match·Even
3.3
2.8
Double faults / match·Even
4.9
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Potapova A.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Williams V.

Williams V.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Potapova A.

Serve advantage — Potapova A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Potapova A.Williams V.
Clutch Rating·Even
49
49
Break points saved·Clear edge
21
36
Break points won·Clear edge
79
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
30
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw