Tyler Zink vs Karl Poling — Vancouver Qualifying Final
Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
USA12#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
Zink T.3-6 6-3 7-5
Poling K.
Zink T.
3672
Poling K.
6351
Tyler Zink won the Vancouver final, defeating Karl Poling 3-6, 6-3, 7-5. Zink hit 15 aces to Poling's 5 and converted 43% of his break points, compared to Poling's 29%. Zink secured 3 service breaks to Poling's 2.
Key context
- Match story: Tyler Zink dropped the opening set before beating Karl Poling 3–6 6–3 7–5.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.3
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
3.5
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTCZink T.66%
Poling K.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Zink T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.4+31 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO4.6Hard Elo 1320
5.7Overall Elo 1371
ELO gap4.3Overall Elo 1314
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form6.57 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set countContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 87%