Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Matilde Jorge — W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas Round of 32

W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas · ITF · Round of 32
ESP
Carmen Gallardo Guevara
#651WTA
22 yrs
Last 10
WWWWWLLWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
POR
Matilde Jorge
#273WTA
1449ELO
1327Clay ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWLLWW
Gallardo Guevara C.
vs
Jorge M.

Carmen Gallardo Guevara faces Matilde Jorge in the W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas round of 32 on clay. Matilde Jorge is the paper favourite — ranked #273 — but Carmen Gallardo Guevara rides a 7-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Gallardo Guevara C.34%
Jorge M.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Jorge M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gallardo Guevara C.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Jorge M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.26 of last 8 on clay
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on clay
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Gallardo Guevara C.Jorge M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
53%
Return points won·Even
49%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.7
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gallardo Guevara C.serving44% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Jorge M.

Jorge M.serving31% hold

wins 42% of points on serve vs Gallardo Guevara C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw