Zhibek Kulambayeva vs Andrea Lazaro GarciaW100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas Round of 32

W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas · ITF · Round of 32
#465WTA
1402ELO
1391Clay ELO
26 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWWLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
#151WTA
1618ELO
1602Clay ELO
31 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWLWWL
Kulambayeva Z.
vs
Lazaro Garcia A.

Zhibek Kulambayeva faces Andrea Lazaro Garcia in the W100 Gran Canaria-Maspalomas round of 32 on clay. Andrea Lazaro Garcia holds the paper edge — ranked #151, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Kulambayeva Z.32%
Lazaro Garcia A.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lazaro Garcia A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Both 4 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Kulambayeva Z. 0–1 · Lazaro Garcia A. 1–0 · small sample
Lazaro Garcia A. better · same surface · 7 months apart · ⚠ lower-tier event
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
2.4Clay Elo 1391
Surface ELO
7.6+212 Clay Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1402
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1618
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.64 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

16 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
52%
49%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Even
1.1
1.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kulambayeva Z.serving38% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Lazaro Garcia A.

Lazaro Garcia A.serving34% hold

wins 43% of points on serve vs Kulambayeva Z.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
99

Kulambayeva Z.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw