Kayla Day vs Mai HontamaVancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#121WTA
1595ELO
1576Hard ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 3 · 5th on
#171WTA
1480ELO
1442Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWW
Day K.
7-6 3-6 4-6
Hontama M.
Day K.
77341
Hontama M.
63662

Mai Hontama defeated Kayla Day in the Round of 32 of the Vancouver hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in favor of Hontama. Hontama hit 0 aces and 10 double faults, while Day hit 5 aces and 12 double faults; Hontama converted 46% of break points and broke serve 6 times, compared to Day's 36% conversion rate and 4 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
54%
Return points won·Even
47%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
0.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
39
29
Break points saved·Dominant
66
27
Break points won·Slight edge
88
96
Deciding sets·Slight edge
18
28
Tiebreaks·Even
67
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Day K.69%
Hontama M.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Day K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+134 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1442
6.4Overall Elo 1595
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1480
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
79
100

Day K.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Hontama M.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°CPartly cloudy
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw