Ye Xin Ma vs Kimberly Birrell — Memphis Round of 32

Memphis · WTA · Round of 32
CHNQ
Ye Xin Ma
#195WTA
1450ELO
1441Hard ELO
27 yrs
Last 10
WLLWWLLWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
Kimberly Birrell
AUS
Kimberly Birrell
#64WTA
1754ELO
1752Hard ELO
28 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLLWL
Xin Ma Y.
vs
Birrell K.

Ye Xin Ma faces Kimberly Birrell in the Memphis round of 32 on hard. Kimberly Birrell holds the paper edge — ranked #64, a roughly 310-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Xin Ma Y.29%
Birrell K.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Birrell K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Ye Xin Ma has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 57 vs 2).
  • Last match: Ye Xin Ma handed Aoi Ito a third-set bagel in a 7–6 2–6 6–0 win.
  • Fatigue load: Ye Xin Ma carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
28 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Xin Ma Y.Birrell K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
42%
Service points won·Even
58%
56%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.8
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
5.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Xin Ma Y.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Birrell K.

Birrell K.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Xin Ma Y.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Xin Ma Y.Birrell K.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
2
Break points saved·Dominant
54
3
Break points won·Dominant
80
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
76
36
Tiebreaks·
—
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Xin Ma Y.Birrell K.
Freshness·
79
—

Xin Ma Y.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
33°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw