Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes BaenaBonn Round of 32

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#242ATP
1460ELO
1444Clay ELO
26 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
MATCH COURT 2 · 1st on
#190ATP
1632ELO
1612Clay ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLWWLW
Houkes M.
4-6 6-3 2-6
Carballes Baena R.
Houkes M.
4621
Carballes Baena R.
6362

Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Max Houkes in the Round of 32 at the Bonn clay tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 in favor of Carballes Baena. He won despite having fewer aces and more double faults than Houkes.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Even
3.8
4.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
23
36
Break points saved·Clear edge
66
82
Break points won·Even
29
32
Deciding sets·Clear edge
34
52
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
16
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Houkes M.46%
Carballes Baena R.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Clay Elo 1444
Surface ELO
7.1+168 Clay Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1460
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1632
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.96 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
100

Houkes M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw