Filippo Romano vs Otto VirtanenSan Marino Round of 32

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#300ATP
1470ELO
1342Clay ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLLWWW
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
clay
#125ATP
1706ELO
1532Clay ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWWWW
Romano F.
vs
Virtanen O.

Filippo Romano faces Otto Virtanen in the San Marino round of 32 on clay. Otto Virtanen holds the paper edge — ranked #125, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Romano F.29%
Virtanen O.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Virtanen O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Clay Elo 1342
Surface ELO
7.4+190 Clay Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1470
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1706
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
4.45 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.95 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
6.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Romano F.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Virtanen O.

Virtanen O.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Romano F.

Serve advantage — Romano F.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
71

Romano F.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Virtanen O.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw