Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien — Washington Round of 32
Washington · ATP · Round of 32
#46ATP
1673ELO
1647Hard ELO
$644kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
USA5#16ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWLLWLWWW
Mannarino A.vs
Tien L.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTCMannarino A.18%
Tien L.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Tien L. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 months13 common opponents · Mannarino A. 7–11 · Tien L. 11–5
Both lost · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
1.8Hard Elo 1647
Surface ELO8.2+257 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1673
ELO gap8.3Overall Elo 1941
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.84 of last 10 on hard
Surface form4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
22 vs 19 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.1
8.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
4.8
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Tien L.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressureClutch Rating·Dominant
57
85
Break points saved·Even
88
90
Break points won·Even
75
72
Deciding sets·Clear edge
75
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
14
99
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 83%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.