Hayu Kinoshita vs Kyoka OkamuraVancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#220WTA
1546ELO
1531Hard ELO
19 yrs
Last 10
LLLLWLLWWL
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
#253WTA
1435ELO
1388Hard ELO
30 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLWWW
Kinoshita H.
vs
Okamura K.

Hayu Kinoshita faces Kyoka Okamura in the Vancouver round of 32 on hard. Hayu Kinoshita holds the paper edge — ranked #220, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Kinoshita H.74%
Okamura K.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kinoshita H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+144 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1388
6.4Overall Elo 1546
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1435
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.75 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Even
47%
46%
Break points saved·Clear edge
62%
45%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
1.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.0
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kinoshita H.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Okamura K.

Okamura K.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Kinoshita H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Kinoshita H.: 17 days rest · Okamura K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
16°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw