Katherine Sebov vs Elvina Kalieva — Memphis Round of 32
Sebov K.
Katherine Sebov faces Elvina Kalieva in the Memphis round of 32 on hard. Elvina Kalieva is the paper favourite — ranked #138, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Katherine Sebov has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Katherine Sebov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 51 vs 18).
- Head-to-head: Katherine Sebov leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at W35 Boca Raton 1 2025.
- Fatigue load: Elvina Kalieva carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSebov K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-09 | W35 Boca Raton 1 | R32 | clay | Katherine Sebov | 7-5 6-0 |