Emerson Jones vs Carol Zhao — Vancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

AUS6

Emerson Jones

#139WTA

1671ELO

1664Hard ELO

18 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWLLLLWWW

—

Sets

Monday, 27 July 2026 · 10:00

hard

CAN

Carol Zhao

#570WTA

1390ELO

1400Hard ELO

31 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLLLLWLWLL

Jones E.

Zhao C.

Emerson Jones faces Carol Zhao in the Vancouver round of 32 on hard. Emerson Jones holds the paper edge — ranked #139, a roughly 260-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC

Jones E.88%

Zhao C.12%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jones E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Surface form: Both 2 of 4 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jones E.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Zhao C.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

8.3+264 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.7Hard Elo 1400

8.5Overall Elo 1671

ELO gap

1.5Overall Elo 1390

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.66 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

3.43 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 5

Fatigue & Travel

Surface transition

7.0Grass → Hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season

Jones E.Zhao C.

1st serve in·Even

63%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

62%

59%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

38%

Service points won·Slight edge

56%

51%

Return points won·Slight edge

46%

41%

Break points saved·Even

58%

57%

Aces / match·Even

1.9

1.6

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.9

6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Jones E.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Zhao C.

Zhao C.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Jones E.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Jones E.Zhao C.

Freshness·

—

100

Zhao C.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

16°COvercast

Wind 13 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.