Francesca Jones vs Chloe Paquet — Targu Mures Round of 32

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

GBR3

Francesca Jones

#113WTA

1619ELO

1621Clay ELO

25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWWWL

—

Sets

Monday, 27 July 2026 · 11:00

clay

FRA

Chloe Paquet

#301WTA

1479ELO

1456Clay ELO

32 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLLWLWLWW

Jones F.

Paquet C.

Francesca Jones faces Chloe Paquet in the Targu Mures round of 32 on clay. Francesca Jones holds the paper edge — ranked #113, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC

Jones F.78%

Paquet C.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jones F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Francesca Jones comes in with 1 days of rest and 179 games in 14d, vs Chloe Paquet's 6 and 54.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Francesca Jones has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 76 vs 8).
Win streak: Francesca Jones arrives on a 9-match winning run.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

2 common opponents · Jones F. 1–1 · Paquet C. 0–3 · small sample

Both lost · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jones F.

7.9

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Paquet C.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.1+165 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.9Clay Elo 1456

6.8Overall Elo 1619

ELO gap

3.2Overall Elo 1479

7.8Leads 2–0 on clay

H2H

2.2Trails 0–2 on clay

9.49 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.95 of last 10 on clay

10.09-match win streak

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

17 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season

Jones F.Paquet C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

67%

62%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

58%

64%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

40%

Service points won·Even

54%

55%

Return points won·Even

45%

41%

Break points saved·Even

54%

53%

Aces / match·Clear edge

1.1

2.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.2

5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Jones F.serving51% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Paquet C.

Paquet C.serving45% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Jones F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Jones F.Paquet C.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Jones F.Paquet C.

Freshness·Dominant

Jones F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 96 games (7d) · Paquet C.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

21°COvercast

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2021-09-11	W60 Montreux	SF	clay	Francesca Jones	6-1 6-3

Francesca Jones vs Chloe Paquet — Targu Mures Round of 32

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw