Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Pavlovic — San Marino Round of 32
LTU3
Gaubas V.
Vilius Gaubas faces Luka Pavlovic in the San Marino round of 32 on clay. Vilius Gaubas is the paper favourite — ranked #128, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Luka Pavlovic arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay to Vilius Gaubas's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Gaubas V. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Vilius Gaubas comes in with 4 days of rest and 41 games in 14d, vs Luka Pavlovic's 1 and 83.
- Surface form: Vilius Gaubas 1 of 4, Luka Pavlovic 2 of 4 on clay recently — Luka Pavlovic the sharper of late.
- Win streak: Luka Pavlovic arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGaubas V.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Pavlovic L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.