Alex Michelsen vs Jack Draper — Washington Round of 32

Washington · ATP · Round of 32
Alex Michelsen
USA
Alex Michelsen
#44ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
Jack Draper
GBRWC
Jack Draper
#147ATP
1822ELO
1783Hard ELO
$351kYTD
$8.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLLWWW
Michelsen A.
vs
Draper J.

Alex Michelsen faces Jack Draper in the Washington round of 32 on hard. Alex Michelsen holds the paper edge — ranked #44, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Michelsen A.36%
Draper J.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Draper J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jack Draper has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 92 vs 49).
  • Surface form: Alex Michelsen 4 of 4, Jack Draper 2 of 4 on hard recently — Alex Michelsen the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Alex Michelsen carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
5 common opponents · Michelsen A. 1–6 · Draper J. 2–3
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Michelsen A.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Draper J.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+28 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1782
5.0Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1822
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
Michelsen A.Draper J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Even
35%
32%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.3
7.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Michelsen A.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Draper J.

Draper J.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Michelsen A.Draper J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
98
Break points won·Dominant
8
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
79
93
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Michelsen A.Draper J.
Freshness·
62
—

Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 83%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw