Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama — Vancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
USA4
Kayla Day
#126WTA
1595ELO
1576Hard ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
Mai Hontama
JPN
Mai Hontama
#203WTA
1480ELO
1442Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLWLL
Day K.
vs
Hontama M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Day K.68%
Hontama M.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Day K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Day K.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Hontama M.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+134 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1442
6.4Overall Elo 1595
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1480
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

35 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Day K.Hontama M.
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
54%
Return points won·Even
49%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Day K.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Hontama M.

Hontama M.serving39% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Day K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Day K.Hontama M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
39
29
Break points saved·Dominant
66
27
Break points won·Slight edge
88
96
Deciding sets·Slight edge
18
28
Tiebreaks·Even
67
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Day K.Hontama M.
Freshness·
—
70

Hontama M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 70 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
16°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 88%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw