Lizette Cabrera vs Sofia Costoulas — Vancouver Round of 32
Cabrera L.
Lizette Cabrera faces Sofia Costoulas in the Vancouver round of 32 on hard. Sofia Costoulas is the paper favourite — ranked #155, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Lizette Cabrera arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Sofia Costoulas's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Costoulas S. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Sofia Costoulas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 83 vs 19).
- Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Surface form: Lizette Cabrera 3 of 4, Sofia Costoulas 2 of 4 on hard recently — Lizette Cabrera the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCostoulas S.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.