Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Maria Sara Popa

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final

CRO

Lucija Ciric Bagaric

#390WTA

1257ELO

1253Clay ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWWLLLW

—

Sets

Monday, 27 July 2026 · 11:00

clay

COURT 3 · 1st on

ROU

Maria Sara Popa

#427WTA

1412ELO

1395Clay ELO

20 yrs · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLWLWWWLL

Ciric Bagaric L.

Sara Popa M.

Lucija Ciric Bagaric faces Maria Sara Popa in the Targu Mures qualifying final on clay. Lucija Ciric Bagaric holds the paper edge — ranked #390. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC

Ciric Bagaric L.37%

Sara Popa M.63%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sara Popa M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Maria Sara Popa advanced when Amarissa Kiara Toth retired.
Last match: Lucija Ciric Bagaric handed Amandine Monnot a second-set bagel in a 7–6 6–0 win.
Surface form: Lucija Ciric Bagaric 4 of 10, Maria Sara Popa 5 of 10 on clay recently — Maria Sara Popa the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Ciric Bagaric L.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Sara Popa M.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.2Clay Elo 1253

Surface ELO

6.8+142 Clay Elo edge

3.1Overall Elo 1257

ELO gap

6.9Overall Elo 1412

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.34 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.06 of last 10 on clay

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

19 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Ciric Bagaric L.Sara Popa M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

55%

65%

1st serve points won·Even

61%

2nd serve points won·Even

45%

44%

Service points won·Even

54%

55%

Return points won·Even

44%

48%

Break points saved·Even

50%

53%

Aces / match·Even

1.6

1.3

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.7

5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Ciric Bagaric L.serving36% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Sara Popa M.

Sara Popa M.serving47% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Ciric Bagaric L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Ciric Bagaric L.Sara Popa M.

Freshness·

—

Sara Popa M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

21°COvercast

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Maria Sara Popa — Targu Mures Qualifying Final