Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Maria Sara Popa | Lucija Ciric Bagaric Wins 6-4 6-2

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final

CRO

Lucija Ciric Bagaric

#364WTA

1257ELO

1253Clay ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WWWLLWWWLW

2 — 0

Sets

Monday, 27 July 2026 · 11:10

clay

COURT 3 · 1st on

ROU

Maria Sara Popa

#399WTA

1412ELO

1395Clay ELO

21 yrs · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWLWWWWWW

Ciric Bagaric L.

6-4 6-2

Sara Popa M.

Ciric Bagaric L.

662

Sara Popa M.

420

Lucija Ciric Bagaric won the final of the Targu Mures clay court tournament, defeating Maria Sara Popa 6-4, 6-2. Ciric Bagaric hit one fewer double fault and had a higher first-serve win percentage than Popa. Ciric Bagaric converted 80% of her break points and won four service breaks to Popa's one.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Match story: Lucija Ciric Bagaric dropped just 6 games past Maria Sara Popa.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Ciric Bagaric L.serving37% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Sara Popa M.

Sara Popa M.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Ciric Bagaric L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Ciric Bagaric L.Sara Popa M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

55%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

63%

2nd serve points won·Even

45%

43%

Service points won·Even

55%

56%

Return points won·Even

45%

48%

Break points saved·Even

51%

55%

Aces / match·Even

1.6

1.5

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.1

5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Ciric Bagaric L.40%

Sara Popa M.60%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sara Popa M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Ciric Bagaric L.

4.2

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Sara Popa M.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.2Clay Elo 1253

Surface ELO

6.8+142 Clay Elo edge

3.1Overall Elo 1257

ELO gap

6.9Overall Elo 1412

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.34 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.06 of last 10 on clay

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Ciric Bagaric L.Sara Popa M.

Freshness·

—

Ciric Bagaric L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather

20°CPartly cloudy

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 81%

Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Maria Sara Popa — Targu Mures Qualifying Final

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Statistics

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return